Thiel starts by explaining that globalization and technology have created a world that is more stable and peaceful than ever before. However, this stability means there is less low-hanging fruit for entrepreneurs to pick. The great economic growth of the late 20th century came from companies duplicating existing businesses on a global scale. But simply copying what works today will not create major new value.

Instead, we need vertical progress that takes things from 0 to 1 – completely novel inventions like the computer or airplane. Horizontal progress that globalizes and digitizes is easy, while vertical progress is hard because you have to do something nobody else has done. But vertical progress is crucial for advancing civilization.

Creating new technologies requires a defiant attitude that goes against the crowd. Most people assume the future will be like the present, just more so. But real progress comes from an optimistic belief that the future can be better than today. This view is inherently controversial. A startup founder has to believe their new idea is right when everyone else thinks it’s wrong.

Thiel lays out several principles for how to think about the future and develop valuable technologies:

• Monopolies are good, competition is bad. A monopoly dominates a market, so you want to own one. Competition means no one wins excess profits.
• You must start small and monopolize a niche market. Then scale up from there.
• Distribution is more important than sheer product quality. The most perfectly engineered technology is worthless if you can’t get anyone to adopt it.
• Sales matter just as much as your product. Distribution and sales ability determine market success.
• Follow the secret – don’t succumb to conventional wisdom. Have the courage to think for yourself.
• Be weird. Weird insights are necessary to find unique solutions to problems.
• Don’t disrupt – avoid competition as much as possible.
• Iterate and improve on an idea over time. But don’t pivot endlessly without a solid foundation.